Price the risk before it prices you.
Quantified cost and schedule risk analysis that turns a list of worries into P50 and P80 dates, a defensible contingency and a short list of actions that move the numbers.
Why it matters.
Single-point dates are promises nobody can keep
A deterministic finish date says nothing about how likely it is. Most of them have well under even odds of being met.
Registers that never change anything
A risk register filled in once and filed away is compliance, not management. Risks only shrink when someone owns the response.
Contingency without confidence
Too little reserve and the program runs dry. Too much and capital sits idle. Without analysis, you cannot tell which problem you have.
How we work.
- 01
Facilitated risk workshops
Structured sessions with owners, designers and contractors to identify risks, agree probability and impact, and assign an owner to each one.
- 02
Quantitative schedule risk analysis
Monte Carlo QSRA on a health-checked P6 schedule, producing P50 and P80 completion dates and the activities that drive them.
- 03
Cost risk analysis
Range estimates and risk events modeled together, so contingency is set at a confidence level the board chooses on purpose.
- 04
Response planning
Each top risk gets a response, a cost to mitigate and a trigger date. We show what the response buys in days and dollars.
- 05
Contingency drawdown tracking
Reserve tracked against retired and realized risks every period, so you know whether the remaining contingency still fits the remaining risk.
What you receive.
Every engagement is scoped to the project. These are the core outputs clients can expect.
Every risk with its owner, probability, impact, response and status, updated each period.
P50 and P80 dates, tornado charts of the risk drivers and the confidence in the current finish.
Reserve sized to a chosen confidence level, with the logic behind each figure.
Mitigations ranked by the time and cost they protect, with owners and due dates.
Contingency used versus risk remaining, plotted every period.
Four sites racing two deadlines.
The storage portfolio had to reach interconnection and qualify for tax credits on fixed dates. We ran quantitative schedule risk analysis across all four sites, showed which transformer and permitting risks threatened the deadlines and helped the owner spend mitigation money where it moved the P80 date most.
- 4
- Sites analyzed
- 400 MWh
- Storage capacity
- P80
- Confidence target set by owner
Questions clients ask us.
What is the difference between P50 and P80?
A P50 date has an even chance of being met. A P80 date has an 80 percent chance. Owners usually fund and commit to a higher confidence level than they schedule to.
Does our schedule need to be in good shape first?
Yes. Risk analysis on a broken schedule gives confident-looking wrong answers. We run a health check and fix the logic before modeling.
How often should risk analysis be repeated?
At major milestones and whenever scope, funding or market conditions shift. The register itself should be reviewed every reporting period.
Turn complexity into clarity.
Tell us what is keeping the project up at night. We will tell you where the schedule, cost and risk really stand.