Battery Energy Storage Portfolio
Quantitative risk analysis across four storage sites racing interconnection and tax-credit deadlines.
- Owner
- Confidential
- Location
- U.S.
- Market
- Renewable Energy
- Our role
- Risk management
- Scale
- 4 sites · 400 MWh
- Completed
- 2025
Quantitative schedule risk analysis across four storage sites racing interconnection and tax-credit deadlines.
The developer had four battery storage sites, each with an interconnection date and a tax-credit deadline that carried real money. Battery containers, transformers and utility upgrades all had uncertain dates. Lenders wanted to know the probability of hitting each deadline, and the developer needed to know where to spend money to raise it.
The approach.
- 01
A risk register that meant something
We ran risk workshops at each site and turned a long list of concerns into ranked, quantified risks with owners.
- 02
Monte Carlo QSRA by site
Each site schedule was risk-loaded and run through a Monte Carlo analysis to give P50 and P80 dates for every deadline.
- 03
Contingency priced
Cost risk analysis set schedule and cost contingency at P80 for each site, which lenders accepted as the basis for drawdown.
- 04
Mitigation by value
Mitigations were ranked by days gained per dollar, so the developer funded the moves that bought the most certainty.
The outcome.
“Lenders do not want a date. They want to know how likely it is. A risk analysis gives them that answer.”
Risk management lead, KonradBeck
Planning something like this?
Share the program, the budget and the date that matters. A senior controls lead will tell you where the risk sits and how we would bring it under control.